Italy U21vs
Poland U21
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · 10/5/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Italy U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Italy U21 6-2 Poland U21
Original prediction
Italy U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 18:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 51.6% | 44.2% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.7% | 24.2% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 4.04 | 22.7% | 31.6% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Italy U21
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Italy U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 1 · avg 2.80/0.20
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40