Istra 1961vs
HNK Gorica
COMPLETEDCroatia · HNL · 9/19/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Istra 1961 · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Istra 1961 0-1 HNK Gorica
Original prediction
Istra 1961
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 49.7% | 44.9% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.3% | 27.5% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.81 | 24.0% | 27.6% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Istra 1961
Probability
44.9%
Model confidence
44.9%
Istra 1961 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20