Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Istiqlol · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Istiqlol 0-2 Wathba
Original prediction
Istiqlol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 12:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 48.3% | 38.5% | -9.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.3% | 28.7% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 4.05 | 22.4% | 32.8% | 10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Istiqlol
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Istiqlol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IstiqlolWLLWW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
WathbaWWDDW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
IstiqlolWathba
33.3Attack44.4
83.3Defence77.8
50.0Form77.8
56.2Power70.7
1.20xG1.24