Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Istiqlol · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Istiqlol are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWDWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Parvoz are 0W-1D-2L in their last 3 (LLD), averaging 0.67 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 8 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Istiqlol hold a 29.0-point power-rating edge (67.6 v 38.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 22.1% in the Vysshaya Liga, while Istiqlol holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Istiqlol
Probability
63.4%
Model confidence
22.1%
Istiqlol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.67/2.00