Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Istiqlol are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DWDWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Khujand are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDWDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Istiqlol hold a 17.3-point power-rating edge (67.6 v 50.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 32.7% in the Vysshaya Liga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 18% BTTS chance and 11% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
32.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40