Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Istiqlol · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Istiqlol 2-0 Al Arabi
Original prediction
Istiqlol
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 12:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 46.6% | 40.7% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 27.9% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.40 | 26.7% | 31.5% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.95 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Istiqlol
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Istiqlol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IstiqlolLLWWW
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Al ArabiLDDLD
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
IstiqlolAl Arabi
0.0Attack0.0
66.7Defence66.7
0.0Form0.0
23.7Power23.7
1.43xG1.22