İstanbulsporvs
Fatih Karagümrük
COMPLETEDTurkey · 1. Lig · 8/29/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
İstanbulspor · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
İstanbulspor 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük
Original prediction
İstanbulspor
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.82 | 32.3% | 40.3% | 8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.4% | 27.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.26 | 40.3% | 32.4% | -7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.32 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
İstanbulspor
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
İstanbulspor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00