İstanbulsporvs
Esenler Erokspor
COMPLETEDTurkey · 1. Lig · 10/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Esenler Erokspor · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
İstanbulspor 0-1 Esenler Erokspor
Original prediction
Esenler Erokspor
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 03:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.47 | 26.2% | 29.8% | 3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.1% | 29.8% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 1.91 | 47.6% | 40.3% | -7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–114%
Predicted outcome
Esenler Erokspor
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Esenler Erokspor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60