Israelvs
Rep. Of Ireland
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/27/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Israel · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Israel 0-3 Rep. Of Ireland
Original prediction
Israel
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 34.8% | 35.9% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 30.0% | 29.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.68 | 35.2% | 34.6% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Israel
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
Israel has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40