Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kosovo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Israel 0-0 Kosovo
Original prediction
Kosovo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.96 | 31.9% | 32.1% | 0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.7% | 28.2% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.33 | 40.5% | 39.7% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Kosovo
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Kosovo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IsraelLLWDD
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
KosovoLWWLW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
IsraelKosovo
16.7Attack33.3
0.0Defence50.0
0.0Form50.0
13.2Power47.8
1.13xG1.38