Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dagon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
I.S.P.E 2-2 Dagon
Original prediction
Dagon
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 16:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.02 | 12.7% | 23.4% | 10.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.66 | 19.1% | 23.1% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 1.30 | 68.3% | 53.5% | -14.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.66 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
Dagon
Probability
53.5%
Model confidence
53.5%
Dagon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
I.S.P.ELLWWL
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
DagonWWLDW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
I.S.P.EDagon
50.0Attack100.0
0.0Defence100.0
0.0Form100.0
21.5Power97.0
1.41xG2.35