Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erlbach · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Ismaning are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LDWDD), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Erlbach are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Erlbach hold a 20.9-point power-rating edge (37.7 v 58.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.8% in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd, while Erlbach holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Erlbach
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Erlbach has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80