Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erlbach · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Ismaning are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Erlbach are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Erlbach hold a 20.9-point power-rating edge (37.7 v 58.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.8% in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd, while Erlbach holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Erlbach
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Erlbach has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40