Iskra Smolenskvs
Zvezda St. Petersburg
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 2 · 9/26/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zvezda St. Petersburg · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Iskra Smolensk 3-1 Zvezda St. Petersburg
Original prediction
Zvezda St. Petersburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.50 | 35.6% | 31.3% | -4.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 28.7% | 29.8% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.50 | 35.6% | 38.9% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Zvezda St. Petersburg
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Zvezda St. Petersburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60