Iskra Smolenskvs
Murom
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 2 · 10/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Murom · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Iskra Smolensk 0-2 Murom, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Iskra Smolensk 1-4 Murom
Original prediction
Murom
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 18:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.30 | 14.5% | 20.5% | 5.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.55 | 16.5% | 23.7% | 7.1 pts |
| Away | 1.33 | 68.9% | 55.8% | -13.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.1 pts
Projected Score
Iskra Smolensk 0–2 Murom
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Murom
Probability
55.8%
Model confidence
55.8%
Murom has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Iskra SmolenskLWWDW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MuromWWWWW
GF 12 · GA 1 · avg 2.40/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Iskra SmolenskMurom
32.0Attack59.4
37.3Defence75.4
29.3Form72.5
35.3Power68.6
0.49xG2.26