Iskra Smolenskvs
Baltika II
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 2 · 8/29/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Baltika II · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-3 (14%), 0-2 (14%), 0-4 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Iskra Smolensk 1-1 Baltika II
Original prediction
Baltika II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.47 | 14.1% | 6.4% | -7.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.75 | 19.2% | 12.0% | -7.2 pts |
| Away | 1.37 | 66.7% | 81.6% | 14.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.75 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–314%
- 2.0–214%
- 3.0–411%
Predicted outcome
Baltika II
Probability
81.6%
Model confidence
81.6%
Baltika II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 14 · avg 0.20/2.80
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20