Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Okzhetpes · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Irtysh 2-1 Okzhetpes
Original prediction
Okzhetpes
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.4% | 30.1% | -10.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.7% | 27.6% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.73 | 32.9% | 42.3% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Okzhetpes
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Okzhetpes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IrtyshLWLLW
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
OkzhetpesWWWLW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
IrtyshOkzhetpes
31.9Attack51.4
53.6Defence55.6
29.0Form58.3
41.1Power56.8
0.86xG1.37