Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Astana · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Irtysh 0-1 FC Astana, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Irtysh 0-1 FC Astana
Original prediction
FC Astana
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.50 | 25.9% | 22.0% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.2% | 26.2% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.86 | 48.9% | 51.8% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.86 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.9 pts
Projected Score
Irtysh 0–1 FC Astana
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
FC Astana
Probability
51.8%
Model confidence
51.8%
FC Astana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IrtyshLWWLW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FC AstanaLWLWW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
IrtyshFC Astana
33.3Attack55.1
53.8Defence65.4
33.3Form61.5
43.1Power61.3
0.70xG1.47