Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Irtysh are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DDWWW), averaging 4.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Atyrau are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Atyrau hold a 3.5-point power-rating edge (41.3 v 44.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.0% in the Premier League, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 25% BTTS chance and 15% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 23 · GA 7 · avg 4.60/1.40
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40