Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aktobe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Irtysh 0-1 Aktobe, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Irtysh 2-1 Aktobe
Original prediction
Aktobe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.12 | 28.9% | 23.5% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.4% | 26.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 43.6% | 50.0% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.4 pts
Projected Score
Irtysh 0–1 Aktobe
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Aktobe
Probability
50.0%
Model confidence
50.0%
Aktobe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IrtyshLLWWL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AktobeWDLWW
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
IrtyshAktobe
31.7Attack48.5
52.4Defence60.6
27.0Form53.0
40.0Power55.3
0.76xG1.33