Ironi Tiberiasvs
Hapoel Beer Sheva
COMPLETEDIsrael · Ligat Ha'al · 10/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Beer Sheva · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ironi Tiberias 0-2 Hapoel Beer Sheva
Original prediction
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.06 | 13.0% | 30.2% | 17.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.85 | 18.9% | 24.1% | 5.2 pts |
| Away | 1.34 | 68.1% | 45.7% | -22.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Probability
45.7%
Model confidence
45.7%
Hapoel Beer Sheva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20