Ironi Kiryat Shmonavs
Hapoel Tel Aviv
COMPLETEDIsrael · Ligat Ha'al · 10/10/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Tel Aviv · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1-3 Hapoel Tel Aviv
Original prediction
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.08 | 15.1% | 17.3% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.18 | 22.0% | 21.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.46 | 63.0% | 61.1% | -1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Probability
61.1%
Model confidence
61.1%
Hapoel Tel Aviv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80