Ironi Baka El Garbiyavs
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 9/23/2026, 5:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ironi Baka El Garbiya · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ironi Baka El Garbiya 3-1 Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel
Original prediction
Ironi Baka El Garbiya
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 50.2% | 46.1% | -4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.1% | 27.8% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 3.60 | 24.7% | 26.1% | 1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Ironi Baka El Garbiya
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Ironi Baka El Garbiya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20