Ironi Baka El Garbiyavs
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 10/8/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Nazareth Illit · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ironi Baka El Garbiya 1-2 Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Original prediction
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.92 | 30.4% | 33.7% | 3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.4% | 28.0% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 43.2% | 38.4% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80