Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Iraq · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Iraq 1-1 Oman
Original prediction
Iraq
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 51.2% | 52.5% | 1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.4% | 25.2% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 4.47 | 20.5% | 22.2% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.23 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Iraq
Probability
52.5%
Model confidence
52.5%
Iraq has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IraqLDWLL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
OmanWLLWW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
IraqOman
80.0Attack53.3
80.0Defence60.0
86.7Form66.7
81.2Power63.4
1.84xG0.95