Irapuatovs
Tritons Vallarta
COMPLETEDMexico · Primera Premier · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Irapuato · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 3-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Irapuato 1-0 Tritons Vallarta
Original prediction
Irapuato
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.20 | 75.3% | 61.3% | -14.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.57 | 16.2% | 22.0% | 5.8 pts |
| Away | 10.64 | 8.5% | 16.7% | 8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.3–010%
Predicted outcome
Irapuato
Probability
61.3%
Model confidence
61.3%
Irapuato has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20