Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Irapuato · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Irapuato are 1W-0D-1L in their last 2 (LW), averaging 3.00 scored and 2.50 conceded, while Tlaxcala are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDDLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 7 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Irapuato hold a 32.6-point power-rating edge (51.0 v 18.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 60.4% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Irapuato holds the strongest overall chance at 60% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Irapuato
Probability
60.4%
Model confidence
60.4%
Irapuato has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/2.50
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00