Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Irapuato · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Irapuato are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Tapatío are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 7.8-point power-rating edge (51.0 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.5% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Irapuato holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Irapuato
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Irapuato has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40