Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Irapuato are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DDDDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Monarcas are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDWDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold an 18.4-point power-rating edge (51.0 v 69.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.6% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40