IrapuatovsLeones Negros UDG

Irapuato are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LLDDD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Leones Negros UDG are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Leones Negros UDG hold a 12.5-point power-rating edge (51.0 v 63.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.1% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Irapuato holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.