Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Irapuato · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Irapuato are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Dorados are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDDWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 17.0-point power-rating edge (51.0 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Irapuato holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Irapuato
Probability
36.2%
Model confidence
36.2%
Irapuato has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00