Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Irapuato · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Irapuato are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 2.60 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Cancún are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Irapuato hold a 37.8-point power-rating edge (51.0 v 13.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.6% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Irapuato holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Irapuato
Probability
58.6%
Model confidence
58.6%
Irapuato has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 11 · avg 2.60/2.20
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40