Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CA La Paz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Irapuato are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.60 conceded, while CA La Paz are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWDWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and CA La Paz hold a 6.9-point power-rating edge (51.0 v 57.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.6% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while CA La Paz holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
CA La Paz
Probability
35.6%
Model confidence
35.6%
CA La Paz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40