Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Varketili · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Irao are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Varketili are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWDW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Varketili hold a 20.3-point power-rating edge (61.8 v 82.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.8% in the Liga 3, while Varketili holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Varketili
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Varketili has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60