Instituto Res.vs
Sarmiento Res.
COMPLETEDArgentina · Reserve League · 9/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Instituto Res. · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Instituto Res. 0-0 Sarmiento Res., with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Instituto Res. 2-2 Sarmiento Res.
Original prediction
Instituto Res.
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 42.8% | 41.3% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.96 | 30.3% | 32.2% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.31 | 27.0% | 26.5% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.96 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Projected Score
Instituto Res. 0–0 Sarmiento Res.
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Instituto Res.
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Instituto Res. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 3 · GA 1 · avg 0.60/0.20