Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Institute · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Institute 0-3 Loughgall
Original prediction
Institute
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 43.7% | 40.6% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 25.7% | 26.5% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.95 | 30.6% | 32.9% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Institute
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Institute has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
InstituteWDWLW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
LoughgallDLWLD
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
InstituteLoughgall
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.98xG1.69