GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 4/11/2026, 11:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Indy Eleven · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0

Highconfidence

Indy Eleven are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Monterey Bay are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLDLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Indy Eleven hold a 13.5-point power-rating edge (49.1 v 35.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.9% in the USL Championship, while Indy Eleven holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Indy Eleven

Probability

52.9%

Model confidence

52.9%

Indy Eleven has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Indy ElevenDDWLD

GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Monterey BayDLDLL

GF 1 · GA 6 · avg 0.20/1.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Indy ElevenMonterey Bay
39.2Attack35.0
58.8Defence40.0
43.1Form25.0
49.1Power35.6
1.58xG0.76
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