Indy Elevenvs
Birmingham Legion
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/5/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Indy Eleven · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Indy Eleven 2-2 Birmingham Legion
Original prediction
Indy Eleven
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.76 | 52.0% | 50.1% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 24.2% | 25.9% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.83 | 23.8% | 24.1% | 0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.78 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Indy Eleven
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Indy Eleven has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20