Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Indonesia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Indonesia 2-2 Thailand
Original prediction
Indonesia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 48.0% | 42.8% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.3% | 26.3% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.71 | 24.6% | 30.9% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.34 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Indonesia
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Indonesia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IndonesiaWDWDL
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ThailandLWWDL
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
IndonesiaThailand
100.0Attack77.8
66.7Defence77.8
100.0Form66.7
86.7Power71.4
1.88xG1.55