Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Russia W · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
India W 0-8 Russia W
Original prediction
Russia W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 30.00 | 3.0% | 26.9% | 23.8 pts |
| Draw | 9.10 | 10.0% | 25.2% | 15.1 pts |
| Away | 1.05 | 86.9% | 48.0% | -38.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-38.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Russia W
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Russia W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
India WLWLWW
GF 15 · GA 10 · avg 3.00/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Russia WWWWDW
GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
India WRussia W
55.6Attack57.1
61.1Defence71.4
55.6Form76.2
56.3Power67.9
1.24xG1.25