Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Uruguay · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
India 1-6 Uruguay
Original prediction
Uruguay
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 46.57 | 2.1% | 20.0% | 17.9 pts |
| Draw | 19.17 | 5.0% | 21.4% | 16.4 pts |
| Away | 1.03 | 93.0% | 58.7% | -34.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-34.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Uruguay
Probability
58.7%
Model confidence
58.7%
Uruguay has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IndiaLDDLL
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
UruguayWLDDL
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
IndiaUruguay
16.7Attack50.0
33.3Defence58.3
11.1Form41.7
24.2Power50.2
0.96xG1.72