Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brazil · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
India 0-4 Brazil
Original prediction
Brazil
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 50.46 | 1.9% | 18.6% | 16.7 pts |
| Draw | 18.63 | 5.1% | 20.0% | 14.9 pts |
| Away | 1.02 | 93.0% | 61.4% | -31.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-31.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Brazil
Probability
61.4%
Model confidence
61.4%
Brazil has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IndiaDDLLL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
BrazilWDWWW
GF 16 · GA 7 · avg 3.20/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
IndiaBrazil
20.0Attack94.4
46.7Defence50.0
13.3Form72.2
30.2Power71.8
1.05xG2.10