IndependênciavsHumaitá

Independência are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Humaitá are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Independência hold a 46.1-point power-rating edge (52.8 v 6.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 81.6% in the Serie D, while Independência holds the strongest overall chance at 82% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 32% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.