Independientevs
San Lorenzo
COMPLETEDArgentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · 9/13/2026, 10:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Independiente 0-0 San Lorenzo, with an exact score probability of 30%.
Prediction record
Final result
Independiente 1-1 San Lorenzo
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 44.7% | 38.3% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.91 | 31.9% | 33.8% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.98 | 23.4% | 28.0% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.91 · Draw 1.91 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.8 pts
Projected Score
Independiente 0–0 San Lorenzo
Exact score probability: 30%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.8%
Model confidence
38.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IndependienteWLDWL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
San LorenzoWLDWL
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
IndependienteSan Lorenzo
42.7Attack24.0
61.3Defence73.3
49.3Form44.0
53.0Power49.7
0.74xG0.51