Independientevs
Gimnasia M.
COMPLETEDArgentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · 8/30/2026, 10:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Independiente 1-0 Gimnasia M., with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Independiente 0-3 Gimnasia M.
Original prediction
Independiente
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 57.2% | 51.7% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 25.9% | 27.3% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 5.55 | 17.0% | 21.0% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.5 pts
Projected Score
Independiente 1–0 Gimnasia M.
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Independiente
Probability
51.7%
Model confidence
51.7%
Independiente has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00