Argentina · Reserve League · 9/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Independiente Riva. Res. 0-0 Newell's Old Boys Res., with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Independiente Riva. Res. 1-0 Newell's Old Boys Res.
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 32.1% | 31.1% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.70 | 33.1% | 31.8% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.57 | 34.8% | 37.0% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Projected Score
Independiente Riva. Res. 0–0 Newell's Old Boys Res.
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.8%
Model confidence
37.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40