Argentina · Reserve League · 9/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Belgrano Córdoba Res. · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Independiente Riva. Res. 3-3 Belgrano Córdoba Res.
Original prediction
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.74 | 32.8% | 33.5% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.0% | 29.7% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.29 | 39.2% | 36.8% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.20 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Belgrano Córdoba Res. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20