Independiente Res.vs
Boca Juniors Res.
COMPLETEDArgentina · Reserve League · 10/1/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Independiente Res. 2-1 Boca Juniors Res.
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.32 | 27.0% | 33.9% | 6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.5% | 30.8% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 43.5% | 35.2% | -8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.8%
Model confidence
35.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80