Independiente Medellinvs
El Nacional
COMPLETEDWorld · CONMEBOL Libertadores · 3/2/2023, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Independiente Medellin are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WDLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while El Nacional are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 3.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Independiente Medellin hold a 4.9-point power-rating edge (49.5 v 44.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.6% in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.6%
Model confidence
35.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00