Independiente F.b.c.vs
Sportivo Carapeguá
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Intermedia · 9/25/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente F.b.c. · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Independiente F.b.c. 0-1 Sportivo Carapeguá
Original prediction
Independiente F.b.c.
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 43.5% | 42.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.2% | 29.0% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.15 | 28.3% | 28.5% | 0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Independiente F.b.c.
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Independiente F.b.c. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80